DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 5 (Rev. Recognition Change)

[March 19th, 2021] In note 4, I was concerned about the noises that accounting change will introduce. There’s no impact on profit dollar but still it will introduce noises. I expect to feel the impact first from the guidance of 2Q21 when the company reports 1Q21 results. Not sure if we will see a before-after …

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DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 4 (4Q20 Charts)

[March 12th, 2021] One of my concern in 4Q20 is the decreased contribution margin (%) due to rising operations and support costs probably driven by competition. I believe the change of accounting treatment on last-mile delivery service provided to JD Logistics will have "some" impact on topline (-) and contribution margin (+). There's no impact …

DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 3 (4Q20ER)

[March 10th, 2021] DaDa reported 4Q20 results and held earnings call yesterday. Review of my projection DaDa Now There's link error in my growth driver cell of TTM Orders Delivered (M)Monetization for Ordered Delivered was better than expectation. Trajectory can be revised upward. JDDJ The traction of TTM Active Consumers looks fine. I was too …

Coupang (CPNG.US) – Note 1

[March 6, 2021] Some thoughts after skimming through S1 and The Generalist's briefing (Coupang: The Art of Obsession) * * * Coupang is a consumer internet company expanding verticals and gaining consumer's wallet share in South Korea. Coupang currently has 1P & 3P e-commerce business (with in-house logistics capacity), grocery offering, food delivery and digital …

DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 2

[March 3rd, 2021] Model I put together a rough model to identify key lever. Most of assumptions are "reasonable" to me (my best guesses based on pattern without particular insights) so they might go wrong for many reasons (potential downside due to competition, execution...). The only parameter that might have substantial upside in the model …

DaDa Group (DADA.US) – Note 1

[March 1st, 2021] Dada Group is a local on-demand delivery and retail platform within JD.com's ecosystem. Retail platform The retail platform, JDDJ, adopts 3P-only marketplace model and focuses on categories (in terms of merchants and SKU) where the value of on-demand sub-vertical of e-commerce is higher than costs for demand side and supply side in …

Yatsen – Quick Cal.

Comments on data in F-1: Yatsen has been growing very fast and the revenue contribution is getting more balanced or diversified in terms of channel, brand and product as the company launches and acquires more brands. It seems the company is quite aggressive on acquisition so the future growth will be relatively difficult to project. …

Yatsen – IPO Note

I just skimmed the F1 of Yatsen Holding Limited (YSG.US). The stock is expected to list on NYSE on November 19th, 2020. I used to summarize S1/F1 but now I notice there are many participants doing similar stuff and even large part of broker's PDIE deck is just a summary of F1 in PPT. Thus, …

Pinterest – Initial Model

Pinterest (PINS.US) [October 19, 2019] Initial Model Download the work-in-progress model in excel here to play around 🙂 It's been a while since I put together initial analysis and deck skeleton on Pinterest. However, I have some difficulties to convert my thesis (particularly business development and competition) into numeric assumptions and found it's not easy …

Natural Food – Initial Thoughts

Natural Food (1837.HK) [August 30, 2019] Interim Results Announcement @ Conrad Background I was simply attracted by the brand name and guided by my preliminary China theme - consumption upgrade. Before attending the meeting, I thought Natural Food was doing something like what General Mill does... Initial Thoughts I didn't find anything that got me …

Pinterest – Deck Skeleton

Pinterest (PINS.US) [August 21, 2019] Deck Skeleton or pdf download: here  

Pinterest – Initial Analysis

Pinterest (PINS.US) [August 14, 2019] Initial Analysis [0] Analysis Background | Approach Selection While Pinterest has been a listed company since April this year, it is still in early stage and is more like a pure play of something. If you think runway left is enormous, a bottom up approach to follow the company increases …

Mercari (4385.JP) – Note on Category Deepening, Product Enhancement & Marketplace Stickiness

Mercari (4385.JP) [December 25, 2018] * Note on Category Deepening, Product Enhancement & Marketplace Stickiness * Following series posts on Mercari (initial analysis, withdrawal from UK) and its related topics (network effect and digital payment service), this notes examines Mercari recent marketplace deepening/expansion/enhancement initiatives and also does an ideation exercise on user generated content (UGC). The UGC …

Mercari (4385.JP) – Note on Withdrawal from UK

On December 18, 2018, Mercari announced it will withdraw from UK market. At a meeting of its Board of Directors held on December 18, 2018, Mercari, Inc. (the “Company”) decided to dissolve and liquidate Mercari Europe Ltd and Merpay Ltd, our subsidiaries in the UK. As mentioned in my Mercari initial analysis, UK operation basically …

Entering a market where existing platforms have network effect working

The title of this post is very generic because I observed or studied cases in different industries that new entrants want to penetrate markets where incumbents already have their network effect working. By leveraging its resources or capabilities, new entrants might be willing to acquire "users" (depending on dynamics of business, platform might want to …